El Niño Forecasting
COLA model prediction of the 1997-98 El Niño. The top panel shows the observed sea surface temperature anomaly during December 1997-February 1998. The positive anomaly in the eastern tropical Pacific is indicative of a very strong El Niño. The bottom panel shows the real-time COLA prediction using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model.
The well known El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomena has a profound effect on the earth's climate. For example, The 1997-98 El Niño directly affected United States fishing and agriculture industries (estimated crop losses of $10-12 billion), caused severe storms, flooding and mud slides along the west coast and Gulf states. The 1997-98 El Niño also significantly lowered the US Northwest salmon abundance. Severe summer drought caused by the El Niño had an enormous impact on the agriculture of the mid-Atlantic states and significantly enhanced the fire storms striking much of Florida.
The 1998-99 La Niña fueled an enhanced Atlantic hurricane season which lead to serious flooding along the Gulf coast of the US. Hurricane Mitch, which was a particularly devastating storm, has lead to at least 10,000 deaths in Mexico and Central America. US troops have been deployed to the region to help with the massive relief effort.
The climatic impacts of El Niño and La Niña cannot be prevented; however, accurate predictions can be used to mitigate these negative impacts. Research in the Department of Climate Dynamics not only focuses on improving El Niño and La Niña prediction, but is also designed to assess the uncertainty in these forecasts. Assessing this uncertainty is critical for local governments and businesses to plan for mitigating the negative impacts and taking advantage of the potential positive impacts.
The research involves using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model at the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) to predict seasonal to interannual climate variability associated with El Niño and La Niña. This research necessarily involves a detailed understanding of the physics and dynamics of the ocean and the atmosphere as well as how the atmosphere and ocean interact to produce El Niño and La Niña.
Contact:
Benjamin P. Kirtman
Climate Dynamics
College of Science
George Mason University
4041 Powder Mill Road, Suite 302
Calverton, MD 20705-3106 USA
email: bkirtman (at gmu.edu)